Polling institutes announced tight results. It’s the case. The Social Democrats and the Conservatives are neck and neck in Germany, according to projections released Sunday, September 26. The two parties both claim to lead the next government.
The advantage seems to go to the Social Democrats (SPD, left), led by Olaf Scholz. With 26% of the vote, they are slightly ahead of the Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU, right) led by Armin Laschet, and fallen to a historically low level of 24%, according to data presented by the ZDF channel. However, the two parties are tied at 25% according to estimates released by ARD.
These figures should be taken with caution because of the very high number of postal voters, not taken into account in these polls.
The SPD claims the chancellery …
The partial results were greeted with an explosion of joy at the SPD headquarters in Berlin. They mark an unexpected rebirth for the left-wing party, which was dying only a few months ago. “It is clear that the SPD” won, said party secretary general Lars Klingbeil:
“We have the mandate to form a government. Olaf Scholz will become chancellor. “
Without waiting for the final results and despite the small difference in estimates, the SPD demanded the formation of the next government.
… but the CDU too
The SPD’s claims have not dissuaded the CDU from also claiming responsibility for leading the next executive. The Christian Democrats have yet suffered an unprecedented setback since 1949 with at least eight points less than in 2017, already a historically low level for the conservatives. For the first time in 72 years, in an increasingly fragmented Germany, the German right has fallen below 30%. In 2017, it still registered 32.8% of the vote. The “Losses are bitter”, admitted Paul Ziemak, number two of the CDU.
Germany turns the page Merkel
This setback casts a shadow over the end of the reign of Angela Merkel, whose popularity remains at its zenith after four terms but who has proved unable to prepare for her succession. A score of less than 30% is a “Disaster”, according to the popular daily “Bild”.
The Greens miss the boat, the Liberals well placed
But Angela Merkel’s succession will be played out during negotiations between political parties, which will have to agree to form a coalition, after sixteen years in the chancellor’s power. In view of the estimated scores, it would take three parties to form a majority, unless there is a new “Big Koalition” between the CDU and the SPD.
Environmentalists will be essential. The Greens and their candidate Annalena Baerbock, a favorite time of the ballot, miss the boat with, according to these polls, between 14 and 15%. Little reason for satisfaction: they beat their record of 2009, when they had obtained 10.7% of the vote, and progress by six points compared to 2017. They should represent the third force of the Parliament.
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The Liberals of the FDP, fourth with around 12%, appear to be the “Kingmakers” essential for building a future coalition.
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